Video PlayerClose CHICAGO, Nov. 24 (Xinhua) — The monetary value of a vaccine that could potentially end the COVID-19 pandemic is between 5 percent and 15 percent of worldwide wealth, according to a study posted on the website of the University of Illinois (UI) on Monday. The researchers estimated the value of a vaccine — what a “representative agent” would be willing to pay to end the ongoing pandemic — using the joint behavior of stock prices and a novel vaccine progress indicator based on the chronology of stage-by-stage progress of individual vaccine candidates and related news. The stock market response to news of vaccine progress allowed the researchers to calibrate a model to estimate the economy-wide financial gain that would be attributable to a cure. To accomplish this, the researchers first needed to summarize the entire corpus of existing vaccine research, spanning several hundred projects worldwide that are racing to develop different versions of a vaccine. “One of the contributions of the paper is that we introduce a forecasting methodology for a very high-dimensional research endeavor that boils everything down to the one number that we think is most important, which is the expected time to the arrival and… Read full this story
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