By Shashwat Mohanty NEW DELHI: The southwest monsoon is likely to get a big boost as the El Nino phenomenon, which dries up the weather in India, has waned while positive changes in temperature in the Indian Ocean are likely to support rainfall, international forecasters say. The widely respected Australian Bureau of Meteorology has withdrawn its El Nino alert. It said that the phenomenon, formally called El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) associated with the warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is unlikely to develop in the months ahead. This is good news for India, where two-thirds of the population resides in rural areas and half the agricultural area of the country depends entirely on rainfall for water. “The immediate likelihood of El Nino developing has passed, meaning the ENSO Outlook has been reset to INACTIVE. While the possibility of El Nino can't be completely ruled out for 2019, the tropical Pacific Ocean is more likely than not to remain in … [Read more...] about Boost for monsoon as El Nino wanes
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NEW DELHI: IMD has forecast a “near normal” monsoon this year while also indicating that a weak El Nino is likely to persist through the rainy season. If both forecasts hold true, it would be only the second time in nearly 50 years that India will have a normal monsoon in an El Nino year. There have been nine El Nino years since 1970, and only once has the Indian summer monsoon remained unscathed from its influence. That was in 1997, when despite one of the strongest El Ninos, the monsoon ended 2% above normal. In the other eight instances, the June-September rains in India were hit irrespective of El Nino’s strength — weak, moderate or strong — indicating a strong link between the weather anomaly in the Pacific and monsoon’s performance in India. El Nino is an abnormal warming of ocean waters in east and central equatorial Pacific that drives changes in wind currents which, in turn, have weather impact around the world. Apart from 1997, other … [Read more...] about Does IMD forecast signal monsoon acing El Nino in 2019?
NEW DELHI: Monsoon rainfall is expected on schedule in the southern tip of the country on June 1, and the weather office has advised farmers to start planting crops quickly to take advantage of pre-monsoon showers and escape the impact of El Nino in the latter half of the season. This year’s monsoon is forecast to be below normal, but timely onset is expected to help crops and bring relief to city dwellers. While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the June-September monsoon to land on time, private forecasting company Skymet Weather Services expects monsoon to hit the Kerala coast around May 28. Government agencies are working hard to minimise the impact of the likely deficiency in rainfall. Weak monsoon rains can hit farm output and trigger food inflation, which has remained high since the devastating drought of 2009, when El Nino reduced rainfall to the lowest in 37 years. “The onset of monsoon looks normal. An error window of 2-3 days can be … [Read more...] about Monsoon rainfall expected to hit Southern coast on June 1
The IMD monsoon forecast seems to be cautious though the depart-ment has predicted a 98% of the normal long-period average (LPA). (The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over India as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm). The model error of 5% means that the actual rainfall for the season could be 93% or 103%. It seems to be slightly hedged towards the negative side of the normal. According to IMD, "There is very low probability for season rainfall to be deficient (below 90% of LPA) or excess (above 110% of LPA)." We at Skymet concur with this guarded viewpoint for two reasons. One, the snow cover over Eurasia is above normal that correlates negatively with monsoon. The other is the probability of an El Nino evolving from the current La Nina conditions during July. El Nino is a phenomenon where sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are above nor-mal by 3/5 degree Celsius in the equatorial Pacific, impacting monsoon negatively. We are currently in a marginally positive La Nina phase, … [Read more...] about Sunny weather aiding wheat harvest in north India
The first stage forecast is that there is a 35 per cent probability of below normal rainfall according to the forecast of the India Meteorological Department. The monsoon rains are expected to 93 per cent of the Long Period Average with an error margin of plus or minus five per cent. … [Read more...] about Poor monsoon: Minister tells