The failure of opinion polls to tip a conservative win in Australia's elections has raised questions about their credibility just years after similar errors in forecasting Brexit and Donald Trump's victory in the US. Australia's ruling Liberal-National coalition claimed a shock victory in Saturday's election, after two years of trailing the opposition Labor Party in every major national poll. The polls showed a slight tightening between the two main parties with Labor ahead roughly 51-49 just before the election. The tentative result, pending final results from the Australian Electoral Commission, shows the coalition instead ahead 51-49 on Monday. "Why did we have such an amazing sequence of polls in a row that all got the same (results)?" Australian polling analyst Kevin Bonham told AFP of the years of polling that pointed to a Labor victory. Most media routinely rely on polls -- surveys of hundreds, sometimes thousands of voters by phone or online -- to flag political trends and tip … [Read more...] about Australia election result stokes mistrust in opinion polls
The election results are out, and I am devastated. But that’s not the point of this article. It’s exhausting and counterproductive to keep ranting. We have our leaders, like them or not. Now what?country, because we can’t give up on our kids. It’s ironic that the people who were too young to vote will be the ones to bear the full consequences of our choices. They will have to pay of our international debts. They will have to find work and pay bills in whatever’s left of the economy. If this government runs the country to the ground, it will be their job to rebuild it. More about politics: More money and a little song and dance could've boosted Otso chances, says this veteran PR Election 2019 yields truths hard to swallow The humble beginnings and great ambition of Isko Moreno Our 13 favorite punchlines from yesterday’s elections It’s our job to teach them how to do it differently, because we sure as heck didn’t get it right. Philippine … [Read more...] about Opinion: why parents are more powerful than politics
By Robin V. Sears Opinion Sun., May 12, 2019 John Diefenbaker, Tommy Douglas, and David Lewis each had difficult, even scarring, childhoods. Illness, poverty, prejudice were part of their early lives. Yet, like their fellow party leaders of that era, those painful memories were not part of their public biography. It was not acceptable to discuss that type of personal history as recently as a decade ago. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been somewhat circumspect about the challenges of his parents’ very difficult marriage, and its impact on him having to navigate the issues it presented him as the eldest son. Friends’ private accounts are clear just how heavy was the impact of that pain in his childhood. It is therefore almost astonishing the candour and courage that Jagmeet Singh has displayed with his new memoir “Love & Courage: My Story Of Family, Resilience, And Overcoming The Unexpected.” More binding than even the taboos within … [Read more...] about Jagmeet Singh sets a new standard for political memoirs
The outcome may rest with Dtac, the telecom operator holding his mobile phone records. Thanathorn’s accusers say there is no way he had time to travel by road from Buri Ram to Bangkok on the January 8 deadline to sign the transfer of his media shares to his mother. Unless his chauffeur was driving at 200 kilometres per hour, that is. Thanathorn’s response? Check with Dtac and see where I was on the afternoon of January 8, he told veteran journalist Suthichai Yoon in an interview. Dtac responded that any request for Thanathorn’s phone records had to come from the man himself; nobody else could check. It’s an extremely important issue. Even if Thanathorn ends up having his election candidacy nullified, the events of January 8 will go a long way toward defining his political fate. Being disqualified for an oversight regarding his V-Luck Media shares would make him a political martyr. Telling a lie to protect himself or being involved in fabricating evidence … [Read more...] about Thanathorn’s acid test: The real deal or just another political opportunist?
Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto's persistence in casting doubts over the results of Indonesia's recent election has led to fears about the long-term implications of his action. Observers say it could lead to the delegitimising of the General Elections Commission (KPU), as well as distrust of the next administration. But, on a more optimistic note, signs have begun to emerge that the tensions between the two competing camps may start to ease. President Joko Widodo won re-election with a comfortable margin in the April 17 polls, according to major pollsters who have him ahead of his challenger by around 9 percentage points. Quick counts by the pollsters have proven accurate in the last three elections. The official count also has Mr Joko ahead, by a bigger margin. Based on 50 per cent of the ballots tallied by the KPU, the President is 12.4 percentage points ahead of the retired army general. Mr Joko has 56.2 per cent of the votes. Official results are due by May 22, at the … [Read more...] about Prabowo’s moves will affect public opinion: Observers