REUTERS: 1/THE FIRST CUT...With President Donald Trump's trade policies heightening fears of a U.S. recession, expectations of a Fed rate cut have dramatically increased in the past month. Money market pricing became even more aggressive after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell threw open the door to a cut, promising on June 4 the Fed would act "as appropriate" to address risks from the trade dispute. It was the second sudden shift in the Fed's tone, after January when it abandoned its bias toward steady tightening.So when would it be appropriate for the Fed to act?The Federal Open Market Committee might answer that question at its June 18-19 meeting. Money markets price a cut by July; by end-2019 they reckon the Fed will have cut twice at least.The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows traders assign an 88per cent probability of a cut in July. They put chances of a June cut at 23per cent, up from around 17per cent a week back. Vanguard, one of the world's largest asset managers, is one … [Read more...] about Take Five: The Fed and the rest
Trump and the economy
Will Trump murder the 10-year bull market? Since Trump’s May 5 tweet, markets were buffeted by sharp downturns and spikes in volatility. Hope turned to despair as negotiations with China broke down, prompting Trump to implement sweeping tariffs. Many feared that Trump’s latest actions may put the bull market’s longevity to the test. Unfortunately, it turned out that Trump was just getting started. “TARIFF is a beautiful word indeed” – Trump To justify his penchant for using tariffs as his primary tool to deter bad behavior of other countries, Trump tweeted the following on June 1, 2019: “When you are the “Piggy Bank” Nation that foreign countries have been robbing and deceiving for years, the word TARIFF is a beautiful word indeed! Others must treat the United States fairly and with respect – We are no longer the “fools” of the past!” Trump imposes tariffs on Mexico over illegal … [Read more...] about Will Trump murder the 10-year bull market?
VATICAN CITY: Pope Francis said he was willing to tell US President Donald Trump in person that it is wrong to build border walls and appeared to warn him not to resume a policy of separating families.In a wide-ranging television interview with Mexico's Televisa aired on Tuesday (May 28), the pope also shrugged off criticism from ultra-conservative Roman Catholics who call him a heretic.Francis, who has clashed with Trump before on migration issues, discussed the situation at the US-Mexican border with veteran Vatican reporter Valentina Alazraki, who is Mexican."I don't know what's happening with this new culture of defending territories by building walls. We already knew one, that (one) in Berlin, which brought so many headaches and so much suffering," he said."Separating children from their parents goes against natural law, and those Christians ... you can't do it. It is cruel. It is among the greatest of cruelties. And to defend what? Territory, or the economy of a country or … [Read more...] about Pope says he would confront Trump directly on border wall
TOKYO: After a fun-filled weekend of golf and sumo US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are set to hold formal talks on Monday (May 27), with trade and tensions with North Korea topping the agenda.The two "golf buddies" enjoyed a round at a course near Tokyo before Trump donned slippers to present the gargantuan "President's Cup" to the winning sumo wrestler on the final day of the summer "basho" or tournament.But Monday sees the start of the more formal section of the four-day state visit as Trump becomes the first foreign leader to visit Japan's new emperor Naruhito, who took the Chrysanthemum Throne only three weeks ago, after his father's historic abdication.Trump visits Naruhito in the morning, before an hour of talks with Abe, with the day culminating in a state banquet with the emperor.The president has already set out his stall on the two main issues confronting the two allies: trade, and the mounting threat from North Korea in the wake of February's … [Read more...] about After sumo and golf, Trump and Abe get down to business
By Heather Scoffield Economics Columnist Mon., May 6, 2019 You could make the case, on foreign policy at least, that the federal Conservatives are setting off down the path of Donald Trump — anti-China, anti-Paris Accord, pro-Brexit, a dim view of NAFTA, a distaste for the United Nations. Indeed, Liberal insiders are quietly making that very case. After all, in the space of a few months, Andrew Scheer has urged the Liberals to take a hard line on China’s blocking of Canada’s canola. He has been circumspect about his party’s dedication to the Paris agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions. He has reaffirmed that he is in favour of Brexit. He has been harsh in his criticism of the way Justin Trudeau handled the NAFTA negotiations with the United States. And he came out swinging against the U.N. Global Compact on Migration. But when Scheer spells out his party’s foreign affairs platform on Tuesday, it will be staunchly multilateralist … [Read more...] about Andrew Scheer will balance pro-Trump and pro-trade